Online Grocery Is Forecast to Grow 10.3% This Holiday Season. Content Has to Keep Up

Adobe forecasts $26.1 billion in online grocery sales this holiday season, up 10.3% year over year. That is faster than the 6.7% growth forecast for online holiday spending overall.

More shoppers are ordering holiday groceries online, and they are doing it at the busiest time of year.

Faster growth in grocery raises the stakes:

•      More first-time and occasional online grocery shoppers will arrive this season

•      Holiday baskets are larger and more complex than weekly orders

•      Trust in freshness and substitutions matters more at a high-stakes meal

•      Content gaps are more costly when order values are higher

Current Grocery Trends

1. Holiday Orders Are Bigger and Riskier

A holiday basket can include specialty items and one centerpiece the whole meal depends on. Shoppers want certainty.

2. Occasional Online Shoppers Need More Guidance

Some of the season's growth comes from people who rarely order groceries online. They need clear help finding and choosing.

3. Convenience Is Now Expected

Shoppers choose online grocery to save time. Slow or confusing experiences defeat the purpose.

Industry Trends Impacting the Grocery Market

1. Growth Brings New Shoppers and New Expectations

As the audience widens, the experience has to serve beginners as well as regulars.

2. Seasonal Catalogs Change Fast

Holiday items arrive and sell out quickly. Product content has to keep pace.

3. Scalable Video and Images Can Meet the Volume

This is where AI-generated video lets grocers produce recipe, preparation, and product content across a fast-changing seasonal catalog. AI-generated images keeps product visuals consistent, and shoppable video lets shoppers move from watching to buying in one step.

Challenges and Opportunities in Grocery

The challenge is serving a larger, less experienced audience with the same content that worked for regular customers.

The opportunity is that a good first holiday order is the start of a lasting online grocery habit.

Strategic Recommendations for Grocery Brands and Retailers

The first priority is adding guidance for the centerpiece items of the holiday meal.

The second is making seasonal product content available as soon as items go live.

The third is making it easy to add everything for a dish in one tap from a video.

Looking Ahead

Online grocery growth shows no sign of slowing around major holidays.

Grocers who treat this season as an onboarding moment, not just a sales peak, will gain customers for the year ahead.

Want to win the new online grocery shoppers this season? See how leading grocery brands are using video to make holiday ordering simple.

FAQ

How much is online grocery forecast to grow this holiday season?

Adobe forecasts $26.1 billion in online grocery sales, up 10.3% year over year.

How does that compare with overall online holiday spending?

Adobe forecasts total online holiday spending to grow 6.7%, so grocery is growing faster.

Why do holiday grocery orders need extra care?

They are larger, include centerpiece items, and support an important meal, so shoppers want more certainty.

How can grocers support occasional online shoppers?

With clear guidance, recipe-led shopping, and visual content that makes choosing and buying easier.

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