Apparel and Footwear Are Set for Their Strongest Holiday Season in Years

J.P. Morgan is forecasting US apparel and footwear sales to grow roughly 5% this holiday season, ahead of the broader retail sector and marking the category's strongest fourth quarter since 2021.

That's a meaningfully optimistic outlook after several years of a more cautious apparel market, and it changes the calculation for brands heading into Q4. This isn't a season to simply defend against soft demand, it's a season with real upside for brands positioned to capture it.

A few things are true about this outlook:

●      Apparel and footwear are expected to outperform the broader retail category this holiday season

●      This marks the strongest projected quarter for the category in roughly five years

●      E-commerce growth remains steady, continuing the long-term shift toward digital shopping

●      Brands that treat this as a growth opportunity, not just a defensive quarter, are positioned to capture disproportionate share

Current Apparel Shopper Trends

1. Consumer Resilience Is Showing Up Clearly in Spending Intentions

Despite ongoing affordability concerns, spending intentions on apparel and footwear specifically are holding up well, suggesting shoppers are prioritizing this category even amid broader caution.

2. Online Shopping Continues Its Steady Long-Term Climb

E-commerce's share of apparel and footwear sales continues to grow, even if the rate of growth has moderated slightly compared to recent years, reinforcing that digital experience quality remains a critical factor.

3. Shoppers Are Prepared to Spend, but Still Expect Real Value

A strong growth forecast doesn't mean shoppers have abandoned price sensitivity. Brands need to capture growth while still addressing the value and affordability concerns shaping the broader spending environment.

Industry Trends Impacting the Apparel Market

1. This Is a Season to Invest, Not Just Defend

A stronger-than-usual growth outlook changes the strategic calculation. Brands that scale back content and marketing investment out of general caution risk missing real upside that a more confident competitor will capture instead.

2. Category Growth Doesn't Guarantee Even Distribution Across Brands

A strong overall forecast means more total spending, but it doesn't guarantee every brand shares equally in that growth. The brands best positioned to convert demand will capture a disproportionate share.

3. Content Readiness, Video and Imagery Alike, Determines Who Captures This Growth

With more shoppers actively spending and comparing options, the brands with the clearest, most complete product content are best positioned to convert that demand when it arrives. AI-generated video makes it realistic to have that content ready across a full holiday assortment heading into the season's strongest projected quarter in years, and AI-generated images can fill gaps quickly for new or fast-moving styles that don't yet have video coverage.

Challenges and Opportunities in Apparel

The challenge is that a strong growth forecast raises the cost of being underprepared. Brands without strong content and a clear value case risk losing share to competitors that are ready to capture demand more effectively.

The opportunity is real and significant: the strongest projected holiday quarter for this category in roughly five years is a meaningful chance to build momentum, not just get through the season safely.

Strategic Recommendations for Apparel Brands and Retailers

The first priority is approaching this quarter with a growth mindset, ensuring content and inventory are ready to capture demand rather than planning conservatively based on recent, more cautious years.

The second is maintaining a clear value case even amid a stronger outlook, since shoppers remain price-conscious even when they're prepared to spend.

The third is making sure product content, video and imagery both, is ready across the full holiday assortment, since a strong season rewards brands prepared to convert demand quickly and clearly.

Looking Ahead

A holiday season forecast this strong doesn't come around often for apparel and footwear. Brands that treat this as a genuine growth opportunity, backed by strong, ready content, will be positioned to capture more of this quarter's upside than those approaching it with the caution of recent, softer years.

Want your content ready to capture this season's growth? See how leading fashion brands are using video and AI-generated images to convert holiday demand with confidence.

FAQ

How strong is the apparel and footwear holiday sales forecast for 2026?

J.P. Morgan projects roughly 5% growth for US apparel and footwear this holiday season, ahead of the broader retail sector and the category's strongest fourth quarter since 2021.

Why is this apparel and footwear holiday forecast considered especially strong?

The projected growth rate marks the best quarter for the category in roughly five years, suggesting stronger consumer demand than the more cautious apparel spending environment of recent years.

Does a strong holiday sales forecast mean apparel brands should stop focusing on value?

No. Even with a stronger overall outlook, shoppers remain price-conscious, so brands still need to make a clear value case alongside capturing the season's growth opportunity.

How can apparel brands prepare to capture this season's projected growth?

By ensuring product content, including video and AI-generated images for fast-moving styles, is complete and ready across their full holiday assortment, since well-prepared brands are better positioned to convert demand when shoppers are actively spending and comparing options.

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